In a December 3, 2017 email,
former Florida congressman Alan Grayson made a clear case for
conservative bias in the electoral system and it's not what you
think. Here is his argument in its entirety:
“The system is rigged,
because to win, Democrats need more votes than Republicans do.
Seriously.
In two of
the last five Presidential elections, the Democrat won the popular
vote, and lost the election. (In fact, the last time
that any Presidential
candidate, winner or loser, won more than 53% of the vote was in
1984.) The explanations for winning the popular vote and losing
the electoral vote don’t end with the “butterfly ballot,” or
“Pizzagate.”
What would
happen if the Democratic and Republican Presidential candidates
received exactly the same number of votes, nationwide? Very
likely, the Republican would win.
The Cook
Political Report’s “Partisan
Voting Index” (PVI) measures how states and congressional districts
vote differently from the nation as a whole, based on the last two
Presidential elections. The “blue” states are “D+”; the
“red” states are “R+”; the “purple” states are “even.”
If a state has a “D+2” PVI, that means that if the vote in the
country as a whole is tied, that state would favor the Democratic
candidate by 52% to 48%.
Thanks to
the GOP’s domination of small states, there are 27 R+ states, 20 D+
states, and three that are even. The R+ states give the
Republicans 262 electoral votes, just eight short of a win, while the
D+ states give the Democrats only 242 electoral votes. Among
the three even states, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and New Hampshire, the
Republican wins with either Pennsylvania or Wisconsin, while the
Democrats have to win both Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Advantage:
GOP.
In the
Senate, the small states and the large states each have two votes.
There is one Senator for every 300,000 Wyomingites, and one Senator
for every 20,000,000 Californians. The fact that there are 27
R+ states and only 20 D+ states means that if the national votes are
even, there would be something like 57 Republican Senators and only
43 Democratic Senators. The GOP’s advantage in the smaller
states puts them close to a filibuster-proof majority, when
the national vote is even. To
get to a 50-50 Senate, the Democrats have to win nationwide by around
six points.
Advantage:
GOP.
In the
House, gerrymandering gives the GOP a huge advantage. The GOP’s
control of many state governments has allowed it to “pack”
Democrats into a small number of Congressional districts, while
spreading a solid majority of Republicans (usually 57% to 43%) in
numerous districts. That’s why the Pennsylvania delegation,
an “even” state, is 12-5 GOP, and the Michigan delegation, a “D+”
state, is 9-5 GOP.
Nationwide,
there are 238 R+ House seats, eight even seats, and only 189 D+
seats. (Republicans hold only eight D+ seats, and Democrats
hold only nine R+ seats.)
218 seats
make a majority. The Democrats would have to win every D+ seat;
every even seat; every R+1, R+2, R+3 seat; and at least one R+4 or
worse seat to win that majority.
Advantage:
GOP.
So the
system is, in fact, rigged against the Democrats. We need more
votes than they do, just to break even. How can we possibly
make that happen?
Turnout.
Only 22% of
Hispanics are Republicans. But last year, only 48% of Hispanics
voted.
Only 33% of
voters under the age of 25 are Republicans. But last year, only
43% of those young voters voted.
We have to
get more Democrats to vote. When Democrats vote, Democrats win.
Courage,
Alan
Grayson”
Additionally, there are other
structural forms of conservative bias, principally state and local
governments. Since county lines are drawn geographically instead of
by populations—there are more rural county governments than urban.
Therefore, there are more conservative office holders in this
country. More county judges, prosecutors, commissioners and the like
giving the GOP a much deeper bench upon which to draw candidates for
state and federal offices.
Yes it is a mighty hill to climb
with the GOP always on the Democratic side of midfield. This is why
we must organize, proselytize, and resist.
Impeach
and Imprison.
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