Dec 18, 2017

December 18, 2017: System is Rigged, Conservative Bias, A Mighty Hill


In a December 3, 2017 email, former Florida congressman Alan Grayson made a clear case for conservative bias in the electoral system and it's not what you think. Here is his argument in its entirety:

The system is rigged, because to win, Democrats need more votes than Republicans do.

Seriously.

In two of the last five Presidential elections, the Democrat won the popular vote, and lost the election.  (In fact, the last time that any Presidential candidate, winner or loser, won more than 53% of the vote was in 1984.)  The explanations for winning the popular vote and losing the electoral vote don’t end with the “butterfly ballot,” or “Pizzagate.”

What would happen if the Democratic and Republican Presidential candidates received exactly the same number of votes, nationwide?  Very likely, the Republican would win.
  
The Cook Political Report’s “Partisan Voting Index” (PVI) measures how states and congressional districts vote differently from the nation as a whole, based on the last two Presidential elections.  The “blue” states are “D+”; the “red” states are “R+”; the “purple” states are “even.”  If a state has a “D+2” PVI, that means that if the vote in the country as a whole is tied, that state would favor the Democratic candidate by 52% to 48%.

Thanks to the GOP’s domination of small states, there are 27 R+ states, 20 D+ states, and three that are even.  The R+ states give the Republicans 262 electoral votes, just eight short of a win, while the D+ states give the Democrats only 242 electoral votes.  Among the three even states, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and New Hampshire, the Republican wins with either Pennsylvania or Wisconsin, while the Democrats have to win both Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Advantage: GOP.

In the Senate, the small states and the large states each have two votes.  There is one Senator for every 300,000 Wyomingites, and one Senator for every 20,000,000 Californians.  The fact that there are 27 R+ states and only 20 D+ states means that if the national votes are even, there would be something like 57 Republican Senators and only 43 Democratic Senators.  The GOP’s advantage in the smaller states puts them close to a filibuster-proof majority, when the national vote is even.  To get to a 50-50 Senate, the Democrats have to win nationwide by around six points.

Advantage: GOP.

In the House, gerrymandering gives the GOP a huge advantage.  The GOP’s control of many state governments has allowed it to “pack” Democrats into a small number of Congressional districts, while spreading a solid majority of Republicans (usually 57% to 43%) in numerous districts.  That’s why the Pennsylvania delegation, an “even” state, is 12-5 GOP, and the Michigan delegation, a “D+” state, is 9-5 GOP.

Nationwide, there are 238 R+ House seats, eight even seats, and only 189 D+ seats.  (Republicans hold only eight D+ seats, and Democrats hold only nine R+ seats.) 

218 seats make a majority.  The Democrats would have to win every D+ seat; every even seat; every R+1, R+2, R+3 seat; and at least one R+4 or worse seat to win that majority.

Advantage: GOP.

So the system is, in fact, rigged against the Democrats.  We need more votes than they do, just to break even.  How can we possibly make that happen?

Turnout.

Only 22% of Hispanics are Republicans.  But last year, only 48% of Hispanics voted.

Only 33% of voters under the age of 25 are Republicans.  But last year, only 43% of those young voters voted.

We have to get more Democrats to vote.  When Democrats vote, Democrats win.

Courage,

Alan Grayson”

Additionally, there are other structural forms of conservative bias, principally state and local governments. Since county lines are drawn geographically instead of by populations—there are more rural county governments than urban. Therefore, there are more conservative office holders in this country. More county judges, prosecutors, commissioners and the like giving the GOP a much deeper bench upon which to draw candidates for state and federal offices.

Yes it is a mighty hill to climb with the GOP always on the Democratic side of midfield. This is why we must organize, proselytize, and resist.

Impeach and Imprison.





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