Mar 7, 2019

March 8, 2019: Sounding The Depths, Boiling Point, This Cat Don't Bounce




Polling of the American electorate, regularly conducted by Quinnipiac University, paints a bleak outlook for our intrepid Disgustus. The Quinnipiac ( pronounced KWIN-uh-pe-ack) poll is considered by polling guru and prognosticator Nate Silver as one of the best, if not the best, in the country. It is not an outlier, but comes closest of any to an actual snapshot of what the country thinks and where it stands. Consider the results of a poll taken late last week and released on March 5:

By a 64 to 24 percent margin, Americans believe that tRUMP had committed crimes before he became president. Less than half of Republicans, 48 percent, say that he did not commit any crimes, but a full 33 percent or 1/3 of people who still identify themselves with his party say that he did.

The country is about evenly divided, certainly within the margin of error, concerning the question of whether tRUMP has committed crimes while in office. A full 45 percent say he has, while 43 percent say he has not. This is stunning, coming on the heels of the 'Stormy Daniels' scandal where the president and his minions are accused of illegally covering up illicit sexual liaisons by paying hush-money. With more certainly to follow, including violations of emoluments clause of the Constitution, bribery, insurance and bank frauds, tax evasion, money laundering, racketeering, and outright sedition involving hostile foreign actors, the pending congressional hearings most certainly means that the the number of Americans totally convinced of his corruption will rise. The fact that already—over mere peccadilloes—half the country views him as guilty can only mean that the Constitutional crisis will soon reach a boiling point.

As it stands right now, Americans do not favor impeachment by a 59 to 39 percent margin. But Disgustus can take little comfort here. It is worth noting that nearly 40 percent—at this stage of the inquiries—do favor at least the beginning of the impeachment process. And, tRUMP should take note, by nearly the same margin 58-35 percent, Americans tell the pollsters that Congress should “do more to investigate 'Michael Cohen's claims about President Trump's unethical and illegal behavior.'” (1)

So far, according to the poll, voters by a 41-36 percent margin approve of the way the Democrats are conducting the hearings, while they disapprove the way the Republicans are conducting themselves by a whopping 51-25 percentage points. If you are a Republican, you know its been a tough week when only a quarter of your base supports your behavior and half the party faithful don't like what they see.

But what commandeered the headlines was the finding that more American voters believed Cohen than the president of the United States. More Americans believed a convicted felon and perjurer than believe the president of the United States. This despite only a narrow plurality of only 44 who said that Cohen told the truth to 36 percent telling pollsters that he did not. So less than half of those polled say Cohen told the truth but, tellingly, 50 percent say they nevertheless believe Cohen than the mere 35 percent who hold to their belief in tRUMP.

The answers to two survey questions deliver a double-barreled gut punch to the honest question,” said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll. “'When two-thirds of voters think you have committed a crime in your past life, and almost half of voters say it's a tossup over whether you committed a crime while in the Oval Office, confidence in your overall integrity is very shaky,” Malloy added. 'Add to that, Michael Cohen, a known liar headed to the big house, has more credibility than the leader of the free world.'” (3)

It is this question of credibility that will be the undoing of our Caesar. As noted in previous posts, the president of the United States has little constitutional power. Rather, beyond his roll as commander-in-chief of the armed forces, the power exerted by the chief magistrate is one of persuasion. He is, and must be, in the end, a master salesman. As his administration drones on, he is finding himself more difficult to sell, because he has twitted away his credibility beginning on his very first days in office over the nonsense surrounding crowd size at the inauguration.

Credibility, knows every mother's son, is built on a foundation of honesty. And therein, lies the Achilles heel of this great and powerful OZ. Approaching three quarters into his term, a full 55 percent of voters view his job performance negatively, compared to only 38 percent who still approve of him.

These are numbers he will find difficult to change, and the polling tells why:

    • By a 65-30 percent margin voters say that “Trump is not honest. His worst grade ever on this character trait.” Moreover, “(H)e gets negative grades on other traits:
    • 39-58 percent say he has good leadership skills;
    • 39-58 percent that he cares about average Americans;
    • 22-71 percent that he is a good role model for children. 
Trump gets mixed or negative grades for handling key issues:

  • 49 percent approve his handling of the economy and 45 percent disapprove;
    Negative 38-56 percent for handling foreign policy;
  • Negative 40-58 percent for handling immigration issues.(4)

When it comes to diffusing tensions on the Korean peninsula, our Caesar has done anything but instill confidence into the American people. In fact, the country narrowly disapproves of his handling of the situation by a 45-44 margin, but by a 52-42 percentage margin voters “do not have confidence in Trump to handle the situation.” While by a 54-34 percentage margin Americans approve of tRUMP's attempts to “create a close relationship with North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un is a good idea,” (5) they are divided 42-42 percent as to whether it has been a success. This before he returned from Hanoi empty-handed with reports that the North Koreans have begun work on restoring a missile launching site.

Things are, indeed, bleak as this maladministration careens out of control. At no time, including the run-up to the election, has our Caesar Disgustus polled above 50 percent of the electorate. He has always tread, in a word, “under water”. Comparisons have been made to other presidents and other administrations who have overcome such overall deficits and won re-election but those men had polled, at sometime in their presidencies a clear majority of respondents. More importantly, they were, on balance, trusted.

Already the party is deserting him. Votes this week on the declaration of emergency on the Southern Border have already gained the disapproval of the House, with the Republican led Senate sure to—by albeit a narrow margin—follow. The Congress has repeatedly voted to impose sanctions on Russian oligarchs and is threatening and may soon do so with Saudi Arabia as well. There is growing unrest within the administration over soaring trade imbalances—now reaching a record 891 billion last year alone, along with a the federal deficit skyrocketing 77 percent over the year before. Conservatives are clinging to tRUMP but are finding that embracing this skunk is not without consequence.

This, now, is a crippled presidency. Crippled by the corruption and mendacity of a vile and corrupt creature who has squandered whatever good faith he had by twitting away his credibility. Former presidents would rise in popularity and yet go down to defeat. They could even, as the phrase goes, experience a 'dead cat' bounce, as in George H.W. Bush's soaring popularity of near 90 percent in the wake of the Gulf War. A popularity, it transpired, a mile wide and an inch thick. An approval that quickly evaporated. Our erstwhile Caesar hasn't even given us that, for this cat don't bounce. He just lays there stinking up the Executive Mansion awaiting to be buried in the dust bin of history.

In the meantime, the country reels from the stench as the Democrats form a circular firing squad.

An Br'er Putin, he jus' laugh and laugh”

Impeach and Imprison.

___________

  1. Ibid.
  2. Ibid
  3. Ibid
  4. Ibid. 1120 voters were polled with the poll having a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percentage points.










Trump's decision to try to create a close relationship with North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un is a good idea, voters say 54 - 34 percent.

Voters are divided 42 - 42 percent on whether the president's meetings with Kim Jong- Un have been a success or a failure.

From March 1 - 4, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,120 voters nationwide with a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percentage points, including the design effect.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts gold standard surveys using random digit dialing with live interviewers calling landlines and cell phones. The Quinnipiac University Poll conducts nationwide surveys and polls in more than a dozen states on national and statewide elections, as well as public policy issues.

Visit poll.qu.edu or www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll





























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